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The Best Markets for Real Estate Investment
Investors are asking this question in the midst of the worst real estate slump in decades...
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Real Estate Investment is a function of price, interest rates, location, job growth, income growth and supply and demand.
While other companies hoard this data and create black box models, we chose to take an open collaborative approach with our clients in sharing our ideas about the best areas to invest.
In our opinion, migration statistics are probably the best indicator of future potential returns for real estate. Reason - people migrate to areas where there is job creation and prospects for employment. In addition, migration also addresses the supply and demand equaltion.
The areas experiencing in migration will usually take the least amount of time to recover from corrections in the housing. market.
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Migration, Growth in Population is one of the most important indicators for future home price appreciation and we below for your convenience the stats that you need to know about.
Step1. What States Have the Largest Number of Residents Moving In?
| State |
2000 |
2005 |
2006 |
Change 2006 vs. 2005 |
Rank |
| Texas |
20,851,820 |
22,928,508 |
23,507,783 |
579,275 |
1 |
| Florida |
15,982,378 |
17,768,191 |
18,089,888 |
321,697 |
2 |
| California |
33,871,648 |
36,154,147 |
36,457,549 |
303,402 |
3 |
| Georgia |
8,186,453 |
9,132,553 |
9,363,941 |
231,388 |
4 |
| Arizona |
5,130,632 |
5,953,007 |
6,166,318 |
213,311 |
5 |
| North Carolina |
8,049,313 |
8,672,459 |
8,856,505 |
184,046 |
6 |
| Arizona |
3,072,149 |
3,638,481 |
3,768,123 |
129,642 |
7 |
| Washington |
5,894,121 |
6,291,899 |
6,395,798 |
103,899 |
8 |
| Colorado |
4,301,261 |
4,663,295 |
4,753,377 |
90,082 |
9 |
| Nevada |
1,998,257 |
2,412,301 |
2,495, 529 |
83,228 |
10 |
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Florida - Despite the doom and gloom, media negativity, ranting about hurricanes and insurance, 320,000 people moved to Florida last year, right in line with historical figures of growth and migration to the state. You can't stop people from wanting to live in paradise.
California - Ditto the sentiments above. As boomers get older and wealth transfers to their generation, they'll pay whatever it takes to live in paradise cities.
Arizona, N. Carolina, Georgia - The migration from the Northeast to the Southern States continues.
Nevada - Nevada's dominated the fastest growing states category since it's working from a much smaller base than the other states; however, for it to make it into the top 10 fastest growing states by absolute volume is truly impressive.
What States Have the Largest Internal Migration, or,
What States Are More Affluent U.S. Citizens Moving To Instead of Immigrants
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Internal Migration 2005 |
Internal Migration 2006 |
| Texas |
57,746 |
218,745 |
| Florida |
262,117 |
165,757 |
| Arizona |
127,372 |
129,987 |
| Georgia |
69,557 |
120,953 |
| North Carolina |
69,352 |
104,133 |
| Arizona |
81,331 |
66,756 |
| Nevada |
51,373 |
53,105 |
| Tennessee |
40,687 |
50,383 |
| South Carolina |
29,159 |
47,950 |
| Washington |
28,156 |
43,089 |
| Oregon |
23,435 |
34,332 |
Texas - Texas impressively dominates the internal migration stats, showing an acceleration in 2006 from 2005.
Florida - 2005 was a peak year for migration for Florida, and 2006 turns out to be a steady year. Florida continues to be a desirable migration state for Americans, and the trend will likely continue into the future.
Southeast & Southwest Dominate Migration
Oregon & Washington emerge as attractive alternatives
What States Had the Largest Losses In 2006
|
Population 2005 |
Population Est 2006 |
Change |
| Louisiana |
4,507,331 |
4,287,768 |
(219,563) |
| New York |
19,315,721 |
19,306,183 |
(9,538) |
| Rhode Island |
1,073,579 |
1,067,610 |
(5,969) |
| Michigan |
10,100,833 |
10,095,643 |
(5,190) |
| District of Columbia |
582,049 |
581,530 |
(519) |
| North Dakota |
634,605 |
635,867 |
1,262 |
| Vermont |
622,387 |
623,908 |
1,521 |
| Mississippi |
2,908,496 |
2,910,540 |
2,044 |
| Maine |
1,318,220 |
1,321,574 |
3,354 |
| Massachusetts |
6,433,367 |
6,437,193 |
3,826 |
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Step2. Job Growth
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If you need further proof that migration and job growth are tied together, check out this chart below. This may help explain why
Here's why the poster child states of the real estate boom - Florida, Nevada, Arizona - have suffered slowing real estate markets, but prices have not declined significantly
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| YOY% Gr |
M06 2006 |
M07 2006 |
M08 2006 |
M09 2006 |
Average 2006 % |
| Arizona |
5.83% |
4.69% |
4.80% |
4.20% |
5.41% |
| Nevada |
5.22% |
4.35% |
4.33% |
3.71% |
5.17% |
| Idaho |
5.63% |
4.61% |
4.67% |
4.10% |
5.02% |
| Utah |
5.56% |
4.97% |
4.98% |
4.77% |
4.99% |
| New Mexico |
4.98% |
3.73% |
4.30% |
4.44% |
3.79% |
| Texas |
3.82% |
3.43% |
3.68% |
3.59% |
3.61% |
| Oregon |
2.98% |
2.99% |
2.89% |
2.68% |
2.97% |
| Florida |
2.99% |
2.38% |
2.28% |
1.91% |
2.87% |
| Georgia |
2.64% |
2.29% |
2.21% |
1.96% |
2.44% |
| North Carolina |
3.08% |
2.13% |
2.02% |
1.83% |
2.39% |
| California |
2.32% |
1.56% |
1.63% |
1.48% |
2.08% |
| Colorado |
2.80% |
2.15% |
2.32% |
2.16% |
2.45% |
| Alabama |
2.23% |
1.68% |
1.66% |
1.63% |
2.04% |
| Alaska |
3.90% |
1.47% |
1.15% |
1.36% |
1.88% |
| DC |
0.35% |
0.85% |
0.40% |
0.68% |
0.40% |
| Illinois |
1.65% |
1.11% |
1.26% |
1.08% |
1.31% |
| Louisiana |
-4.42% |
-4.84% |
-4.11% |
3.65% |
-3.77% |
| Michigan |
-1.00% |
-1.79% |
-1.56% |
-1.85% |
-1.19% |
| Mississippi |
0.88% |
0.10% |
0.79% |
2.94% |
0.60% |
| New York |
1.08% |
0.80% |
0.77% |
0.84% |
0.84% |
| Ohio |
0.31% |
-0.02% |
0.08% |
-0.10% |
0.28% |
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Conclusion:
We're in the midst of a major migration to the Southern and Western States. Job growth and migration patterns are strongest for these states as the data above indicate.
Next:
Analysing income growth, supply and demand. Watch for future releases.
Our View: The best opportunities for real estate investment in the coming months and years will be in Arizona, Nevada, Utah, Idaho, Florida, North Carolina, Texas, Colorado, Georgia, Newf Mexico, California and Oregon.
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Census Bureau Announces Most Populous Cities
Phoenix is the nation’s fifth most populous city, according to U.S. Census Bureau population estimates as of July 1, 2006.
Phoenix moved into fifth place ahead of Philadelphia, the latest data indicating a population shift from the Northeast to the South and West. The 2006 estimates show that seven of the top 10 cities are in states that border Mexico.
The estimates also reveal that many of the nation’s fastest-growing cities are suburbs. North Las Vegas, Nev., a suburb of Las Vegas, had the nation’s fastest growth rate among large cities. North Las Vegas’ population increased 11.9 percent during the period, to 197,567.
Florida and Arizona each had two cities among the 10 fastest growing: Port St. Lucie (third) and Cape Coral (fourth) in Florida; and Gilbert (fifth) and Peoria (seventh) in Arizona.
North Carolina (Cary, near Raleigh) and California (Lancaster, near Los Angeles) also had one city on the list. .
Phoenix had the largest population increase of any city between 2005 and 2006, adding more than 43,000 residents to reach 1.5 million.
Texas dominated the list of the 10 highest numerical gainers, with San Antonio, Fort Worth, Houston, Austin and Dallas each making the top 10.
North Las Vegas; Miami; Charlotte, N.C.; and San Jose, Calif., rounded out the list of the 10 biggest numerical gainers.
New Orleans had by far the largest population loss among all cities with populations of at least 100,000 people. The city lost slightly more than half of its pre-Hurricane Katrina population.
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